JUS MLB BLOG 9/29: THE PADRES MADE US EAT OUR WORDS. NOW LET’S SEE WHAT THEY DO WITH IT.
Okay.
We were wrong.
JUS predicted the Padres were going to win the NL West.
They did not.
The Dodgers won 100 games (no one cares), and San Diego finished nine games back.
So yes.
We missed that one.
But here’s the part where the Padres get to shove the rest of our criticism directly back in our face.
Because a few weeks ago we were calling this team out.
Hard.
We said Manny Machado needed to start hitting.
We said Jackson Merrill would swing at anything within approximately the same ZIP code as the strike zone.
We said the bullpen was drawing cards to see who got to blow the next game.
We said Casey Mize looked like the exploding oxen tank on Apollo 13
We basically accused the entire organization of trying to ruin our summer.
And what happened?
They stepped up.
Big time.
The Padres finished the regular season on a 41-18 run, grabbed the No. 1 Wild Card position in the National League, and earned home-field advantage for this series.
So let’s say this clearly.
The Padres made JUS eat its words.
Good.
That’s exactly what we wanted.
HOME FIELD IS HUGE
San Diego hosts the Cubs tonight at Petco Park.
And that matters.
A lot.
Because if this series were at Wrigley Field again?
That would be Jacked Up.
Last year, the Cubs knocked the Padres out of the Wild Card round in Chicago.
This year, the series is in San Diego.
Game 1 tonight.
Game 2 Wednesday.
Game 3 Thursday if necessary.
All at Petco.
That’s a completely different setup.
Petco during playoff baseball is a madhouse.
Good madhouse.
Not “somebody just set a shopping cart on fire” madhouse.
The kind where every two-strike count sounds like the seventh game of the World Series.
If the Padres are going to make a run, this is exactly where they want to start it.
MICHAEL KING GETS THE BALL
Michael King starts Game 1.
And honestly, that’s exactly who you want.
King finished the regular season 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA and 159 strikeouts and established himself as the ace of a rotation that had a lot of questions during the year.
The Cubs counter with left-hander Matthew Boyd, who finished 10-5 with a 3.91 ERA.
So here we go.
Ace.
Home crowd.
Best-of-three.
No pressure whatsoever.
PROJECTED PADRES LINEUP
The official lineup had not been posted yet this morning, but MLB.com’s projected Game 1 lineup against the left-handed Boyd is:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. — RF
- Xander Bogaerts — SS
- Manny Machado — 3B
- Ty France — 1B
- Jackson Merrill — CF
- Luis Campusano — C
- Austin Hays — DH
- Samad Taylor — LF
- Jake Cronenworth — 2B
That’s not a bad group to roll into October with.
Tatis got hot.
Machado got hot.
Merrill got hot.
And the entire offense basically woke up at the exact moment JUS started yelling at everybody.
Again:
You’re welcome.
THE OFFENSE FINALLY SHOWED UP
This might actually be the biggest difference between this Padres team and the one that lost to Chicago last year.
We said it, the JUS key to winning in baseball was hitting with runners in scoring position, specially with 2 outs, can’t do it, can’t win, no matter what else is going right or wrong on your team.
According to MLB.com, the Padres had the best offense in baseball in September by wRC+.
That is an insane turnaround.
This team spent part of the season looking like runs were some sort of optional add-on you had to purchase separately.
Then September hit and suddenly everybody started hitting.
That’s what you need in October.
Because pitching can get you there.
But eventually somebody has to hit the baseball.
Preferably hard.
Preferably with people on base.
AND THE CUBS ARE NOT SOME EASY DRAW
Let’s not get stupid.
Chicago is good.
Really good defensively.
MLB.com says the Cubs had the best defense in baseball this season by a huge margin, setting Statcast-era records in both Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average.
Pete Crow-Armstrong had a monster season.
Alex Bregman is back.
Seiya Suzuki can hurt you.
This is not some team that accidentally wandered into the postseason because somebody forgot to lock the door.
The Cubs also won five of the six regular-season games against San Diego.
So yes.
This is going to be a fight.
Which is exactly what playoff baseball should be.
THE REST OF TODAY’S WILD CARD GAMES
And it’s not just Padres-Cubs.
The entire Wild Card round starts today.
PHILLIES AT BRAVES — 11:00 AM PT
Philadelphia heads to Atlanta for Game 1.
That’s one of those series where nobody likes anybody.
Perfect.
WHITE SOX AT ASTROS — 2:00 PM PT
Chicago gets Houston.
The White Sox finished the season 84-78.
Houston finished 81-81.
So congratulations to everybody involved for making October baseball look extremely negotiable.
RED SOX AT YANKEES — 5:00 PM PT
Boston.
New York.
Playoffs.
No explanation necessary.
Some rivalries don’t need marketing.
CUBS AT PADRES — 7:00 PM PT
And then the main event.
At least around here.
All four Wild Card series are best-of-three, with Games 1 and 2 today and Wednesday, and Game 3 Thursday if necessary.
SO WHAT NOW?
Now we find out whether the Padres’ final two months were real.
They finished hot.
They earned home field.
They got themselves into the best possible Wild Card position.
They turned around an offense that looked dead.
They made JUS eat its words.
Now finish it.
Win two games.
Move on.
That’s it.
No predictions today.
We already learned our lesson.
But we will say this:
If the Padres play the way they played down the stretch, nobody is going to enjoy coming into Petco Park.
And if they don’t?
Well.
We’ll be here tomorrow.
Ready to yell again.
October baseball is back in San Diego.
Technically September.
Whatever.
Let’s go.
